Markets have finished the week on a much stronger footing, driven largely by news of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East. The reaction was immediate, with sharemarkets pushing higher as investors responded to the idea that energy disruptions may begin to ease, at least in the short term.
It’s a welcome shift in sentiment, although it still feels fragile. Markets aren’t reacting to certainty here, they’re reacting to the possibility that things might improve. If the ceasefire holds, it could take some pressure off energy prices and inflation. But if it unravels, the rebound we’ve just seen could just as quickly reverse.
That underlying tension is showing up clearly in gold. Over the past two weeks, it has quietly staged a strong recovery, moving from around US$4100 to roughly US$4765. That’s close to a 15% lift in a relatively short period, and notably, it hasn’t been a volatile move. Instead, the rise has been steady, which tends to suggest consistent demand rather than short-term speculation.
What we’re seeing here is investors looking beyond the immediate headlines and positioning for what might come next. Even if tensions ease temporarily, there’s still a broad sense that the economic impacts, particularly around inflation, are not going away anytime soon. That backdrop continues to support gold, as it remains a place investors turn when the outlook feels uncertain.
Silver, however, is telling a slightly different story. While it has followed gold higher at times, the path has been less consistent, with more swings along the way. As we move into next week, it’s approaching a level that could prove important in shaping its direction, and whether it can hold momentum or stalls again will be worth watching.
Looking across the week more broadly, the bigger picture hasn’t shifted all that much. Fuel relief in Australia has offered some marginal support, but overall costs remain elevated. Inflation is still expected to sit around the 5% mark, keeping pressure on both interest rates and household budgets. At the same time, housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have started to soften, suggesting that higher borrowing costs are beginning to bite.
When you step back, it all points to the same underlying theme. The ceasefire may improve sentiment in the short term, but it doesn’t resolve the deeper issues still sitting beneath the surface. Energy supply, inflation and economic growth are all still very much in play, and markets are continuing to work through how those forces interact.
For gold, that environment remains supportive, as the recent recovery has shown. Silver’s more uneven performance is a reminder that the outlook is still far from settled, and that uncertainty continues to sit at the centre of the current market narrative.
Technical Indicators FOR GOLD – Weekly Projections
Daily technical indicators – STRONG BUY, leading into weekly projection of STRONG BUY
Weekly technical indicators chart.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI(14) | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | Neutral |
| STOCHRSI(14) | Oversold |
| MACD(12,26) | Buy |
| ADX(14) | Buy |
| Williams %R | Sell |
| CCI(14) | Neutral |
| ATR(14) | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Buy |
| ROC | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | Sell |
Markets tend to move on expectations rather than confirmed outcomes. When a ceasefire is announced, investors quickly price in the idea that things might improve, especially when it comes to energy supply and inflation. That can push sharemarkets higher almost immediately. The risk is that expectations can change just as quickly. If a ceasefire breaks down, markets often reverse course just as fast as they moved up. Gold behaves a little differently. While easing tensions can reduce some of the immediate demand, ongoing uncertainty and the after-effects of higher costs can still support prices. That’s why gold can continue to perform even when sharemarkets are having a better week.
