Energy shock reshapes markets as pressure builds globally.
This week has marked a clear shift across global markets, with energy, geopolitics and inflation moving firmly back into focus. What began as a contained event is now feeding directly into pricing, supply chains and consumer behaviour.
Energy has led the move. Diesel has pushed past $3.20 per litre in Sydney, with South East Queensland likely close behind. The impact is already flowing through logistics and retail, as businesses introduce fuel surcharges to offset rising transport costs. This is one of the fastest ways inflation re-enters the economy, as higher freight costs move quickly into everyday pricing.
At the same time, the situation in Iran has become more complex. Beyond the expansion into energy infrastructure, internal instability is now emerging, with widespread protests challenging the current regime. This adds another layer of uncertainty, as markets weigh both external conflict and potential disruption within a key energy-producing region.
For bullion, the week has been more measured. Gold and silver slipped below their 50-day moving averages, signalling softer short-term momentum, but both remain supported on longer-term trends. After last week’s sharp sell-off, this week has felt more like stabilisation, with markets reassessing rather than extending the move lower.
The broader macro picture is becoming harder to ignore. Central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, continue to manage inflation through higher rates. However, rising energy costs represent a supply-side shock, something monetary policy is less effective at controlling. This increases the risk of a more persistent inflation cycle if fuel prices remain elevated.
From an Australian perspective, pressure is building from multiple angles. Higher mortgage costs, rising fuel prices and increasing living expenses are converging at once, leaving households with limited flexibility to absorb further increases.
What stands out from this week is the alignment of pressures. Energy disruption, geopolitical instability and domestic cost pressures are all moving together. Markets are beginning to recognise this may not be temporary, but the early stages of a more sustained adjustment.
Technical Indicators FOR GOLD – Weekly Projections
Daily technical indicators – STRONG SELL, leading into weekly projection of NEUTRAL
Weekly technical indicators chart.
Learn more about technical indicators and what they mean.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI(14) | Neutral |
| STOCH(9,6) | Neutral |
| STOCHRSI(14) | Oversold |
| MACD(12,26) | Buy |
| ADX(14) | Buy |
| Williams %R | Oversold |
| CCI(14) | Sell |
| ATR(14) | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | Sell |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Sell |
| ROC | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | Sell |
Fuel costs are one of the most immediate drivers of inflation. Changes in fuel pricing impact transport almost instantly, and every product in the economy carries a transport cost. When diesel rises sharply, operators pass on those costs through surcharges and price increases, flowing quickly into retail pricing. This is why fuel-driven inflation often feels sudden and widespread. In periods of elevated energy disruption and geopolitical risk, fuel becomes the trigger that brings inflation back into focus. While central banks can influence demand, they have far less control over supply shocks, making sustained fuel increases a key risk for both policymakers and markets.
