Gold and silver have pulled back slightly as markets digest escalating conflict involving Iran and the broader Middle East. After an initial surge on headline risk, both metals appear to be consolidating rather than accelerating. This is typical behaviour when traders reassess whether an event is a short, sharp shock or something structurally disruptive. For now, bullion remains underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty, but the immediate panic bid has cooled.
The bigger question may not be direct access to Iranian oil, but control over global oil flow. The United States is now one of the world’s largest energy producers, with domestic shale production significantly reducing reliance on Middle Eastern crude. The strategic lever is less about physical supply into the US and more about influence over shipping lanes, pricing power and the stability of global benchmarks such as Brent. If conflict threatens key transit routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, volatility in oil markets becomes less about barrels in the ground and more about barrels in transit.
Oceanic freight markets are already responding. War risk insurance premiums on vessels transiting through the region have reportedly surged, in some cases multiplying several fold. Higher insurance costs translate directly into higher landed costs for fuel, food and manufactured goods. Aviation is also feeling the pressure. Flight paths across Middle Eastern hubs are being rerouted or reduced, lifting fuel burn and operational costs at a time when airlines were only just stabilising post-pandemic balance sheets.
For Australia, the exposure is uncomfortable. The country holds relatively low levels of onshore fuel reserves by OECD standards and remains heavily dependent on refined fuel imports. While there have been ongoing efforts to strengthen ties with the United States around fuel supply and strategic reserves, the reality is that Australia sits at the end of long supply chains. Any sustained disruption to shipping routes or sharp rise in marine insurance premiums will filter through to petrol bowsers and transport costs.
In this environment, gold and silver are likely to remain sensitive to two drivers, energy volatility and currency movements. If oil continues to rise on shipping risk rather than production shortages, inflation expectations could reawaken. That dynamic tends to re-anchor investor interest in hard assets. For now, the pullback looks more like positioning adjustment than a change in trend.
Markets are no longer reacting purely to missiles and headlines. They are recalculating logistics, insurance, energy flow and strategic leverage. That recalculation may prove more enduring than the initial spike in volatility.
Technical Indicators – Weekly Projections
Daily technical indicators put forward a strong buy, leading into weekly projection of Strong Buy
Weekly technical indicators chart.
| RSI(14) | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | Buy |
| STOCHRSI(14) | Sell |
| MACD(12,26) | Buy |
| ADX(14) | Overbought |
| Williams %R | Buy |
| CCI(14) | Buy |
| ATR(14) | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Buy |
| ROC | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | Buy |
Australia’s fuel security has been a growing policy concern for several years. As a nation, we no longer refine enough fuel domestically to meet demand and rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products. According to the latest government disclosures, Australia typically holds around 20 to 30 days of petrol and diesel stocks onshore, although the figure fluctuates depending on demand and shipping schedules. When measured against International Energy Agency obligations, Australia has historically fallen short of the 90-day benchmark, prompting the government to secure additional strategic reserves offshore, including agreements to store crude in the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
In practical terms, that means Australia has roughly three to four weeks of accessible, physical fuel supply within its own borders under normal consumption patterns. While contingency arrangements exist, including commercial stocks and offshore holdings, any sustained disruption to shipping routes, insurance availability, or refining capacity in Asia would quickly tighten domestic supply chains. In a prolonged crisis scenario, fuel availability would become a logistics challenge long before crude oil itself “runs out”.