Gold has continued to edge higher this week, building on the steady recovery we’ve seen over the past fortnight. It’s not a rushed move, and that’s what makes it more notable. This kind of gradual climb tends to reflect a more considered shift in positioning, rather than short-term reaction. Investors aren’t panicking, but they are clearly leaning back toward safety.
That shift is happening against a backdrop that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The International Monetary Fund has reiterated concerns around a potential third global recession this century, and while that might sound dramatic, the underlying data is starting to line up with that narrative. Growth is slowing across major economies, but costs are not easing in the way central banks would like.
The latest US inflation data hasn’t helped settle nerves either. March CPI came in at 0.9% for the month, a sharp overshoot and roughly three times higher than expectations. It’s the kind of number that reminds markets inflation is not fully under control, even after aggressive rate tightening. When inflation surprises on the upside like this, it complicates everything, from interest rate outlooks to consumer confidence and business investment.
Energy remains at the centre of the uncertainty. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has escalated further, with the US now effectively countering Iran’s control attempts by enforcing its own naval presence. This isn’t just political theatre. It directly impacts one of the most critical shipping routes in the world, and even the perception of disruption is enough to keep oil prices elevated.
What we’re seeing globally is a continuation of the same pattern. Slower growth, persistent inflation, and ongoing geopolitical tension. It’s not a comfortable mix, and it’s why terms like stagflation are starting to reappear more frequently in economic discussions.
At the same time, there’s a longer-term shift quietly accelerating in the background. Countries that have historically relied on external oil supply are now moving with more urgency to reduce that dependence. Australia sits in that group, and while we’re somewhat insulated geographically, we’re not immune to the pricing effects. That said, there is still a sense that we’re relatively lucky here, particularly when compared to regions directly exposed to conflict or supply disruption.
Battery technology continues to improve, and hydrogen is gaining traction as a serious alternative for industrial use. These aren’t overnight changes, but the direction is becoming clearer. The volatility in energy markets is forcing governments and industries to think more seriously about diversification, not just for cost reasons, but for stability.
For gold, this environment remains supportive. Ongoing uncertainty, combined with inflation that isn’t fully under control, continues to provide a steady tailwind. Price is now approaching the 50-day moving average, a level that often acts as a checkpoint for momentum. A clean move through it could signal growing confidence, while hesitation may suggest the market needs more clarity before committing further.
As we close out the week, there’s a sense that markets are holding together reasonably well on the surface. But underneath, the pressure is building. Inflation surprises, energy risk, and geopolitical tension are all still very much in play, and that’s keeping a quiet bid under safe haven assets.
Technical Indicators FOR GOLD – Weekly Projections
Daily technical indicators – STRONG BUY, leading into weekly projection of STRONG BUY
Weekly technical indicators chart.
Learn more about technical indicators and what they mean.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI(14) | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | Sell |
| STOCHRSI(14) | Sell |
| MACD(12,26) | Buy |
| ADX(14) | Buy |
| Williams %R | Neutral |
| CCI(14) | Neutral |
| ATR(14) | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Neutral |
| ROC | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | Buy |
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for everyday goods and services over time. It’s one of the most widely used indicators of inflation. When CPI comes in higher than expected, like we’ve just seen, it signals that prices are rising faster than anticipated. This often leads central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, or even raise them further, to try and slow spending and bring inflation back under control. For markets, that creates a balancing act. Higher rates can slow economic growth, but they’re often necessary to stabilise prices, which is why CPI releases tend to move markets so quickly.
