Gold and silver continue to extend their current rally, building on momentum that has been forming over recent weeks. Both metals are holding above key trend levels, with technical positioning suggesting sustained accumulation rather than speculative spikes. The tone across bullion markets remains constructive, particularly as macro uncertainty lingers beneath headline economic resilience.
In the United States, President Donald Trump delivered the annual State of the Union address, highlighting what he described as strong economic outcomes and policy achievements. The speech focused on growth, energy independence, trade positioning and labour market performance. However, approval ratings across several demographic and economic segments remain mixed, underscoring a broader divide between macroeconomic indicators and public sentiment. Markets tend to focus less on approval metrics and more on policy trajectory, particularly around fiscal spending, tariffs and Federal Reserve interaction.
Credit conditions are also drawing attention. In Australia, credit card debt has climbed to approximately $45 billion, marking a four year high. Rising balances typically signal two possible dynamics, either consumer confidence is improving and discretionary spending is rising, or households are leaning more heavily on revolving credit to manage cost of living pressures. With interest rates still elevated relative to pre pandemic settings, the latter interpretation cannot be ignored. Elevated consumer debt levels, when paired with tighter monetary conditions, tend to increase systemic sensitivity to economic shocks.
A separate fiscal debate has re-emerged domestically. Beer excise revenue is now generating approximately $2.7 billion annually for the Commonwealth, exceeding Petroleum Resource Rent Tax collections from gas exports, which are sitting around $1.5 billion. This comparison has reignited public scrutiny, particularly given Australia’s position as one of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporters. The contrast between consumer taxation and resource taxation is raising broader questions about fiscal structure, royalty design and long term energy strategy.
From a capital allocation perspective, these cross currents matter. Strong political rhetoric, rising household debt, structural tax debates and persistent geopolitical undercurrents collectively reinforce the case for portfolio diversification. Gold and silver’s current rally is occurring not in isolation, but within a landscape defined by fiscal complexity and shifting economic narratives.
For now, bullion markets appear to be responding less to short term headlines and more to the structural themes developing beneath them. Whether those themes accelerate or stabilise in coming months will likely shape the next major move in precious metals.
Technical Indicators – Weekly Projections
Daily technical indicators put forward a strong buy, leading into weekly projection of Strong Buy
Weekly technical indicators chart.
| RSI(14) | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | Buy |
| STOCHRSI(14) | Overbought |
| MACD(12,26) | Buy |
| ADX(14) | Overbought |
| Williams %R | Buy |
| CCI(14) | Buy |
| ATR(14) | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Buy |
| ROC | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | Buy |
Beer excise is a volume based consumption tax applied to alcohol, charged per litre of alcohol content and indexed to inflation. It is collected from producers but ultimately paid by consumers, which makes it a steady and predictable revenue source for government. Because it applies to every unit sold regardless of profitability, it consistently generates billions in revenue each year.
The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, or PRRT, is very different. It is a profits based tax applied to certain oil and gas projects, meaning companies only pay once they have recovered exploration and development costs. Large LNG projects can carry forward billions in deductions for years, which can significantly delay taxable profit. That is why Australia can be one of the world’s largest gas exporters, yet PRRT revenue can sit below what is collected from beer excise, sparking ongoing public debate.
