It has been a week in which the threads connecting geopolitics, monetary policy and precious metals pricing have pulled tighter. Each development on its own would have been significant. Together, they paint a picture of a global economy under sustained, multi-directional stress.
EU says no
Perhaps the most consequential political signal of the week came from Europe. As the United States continued to press for broader allied involvement in its conflict with Iran, European nations made their position clear. They would not be drawn into another extended Middle East campaign. The refusal is not simply a diplomatic footnote. It signals a fracturing of Western unity at precisely the moment the conflict is beginning to reshape global commodity markets, energy flows and financial architecture. For markets, a divided West introduces a layer of geopolitical uncertainty that rarely resolves quickly.
Gold and Silver: Looking for a floor
Gold is currently trading around US$4,656 per ounce, a significant retreat from the highs seen earlier in the month. As recently as Monday this week the metal was above US$5,000, before a combination of a hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index reading and dollar strength pushed prices sharply lower through the middle of the week. Silver has fared worse, trading around US$77.77 per ounce, with the gold-to-silver ratio sitting near 62.5.
The key technical level through the week has been the 50-day moving average. Both metals tested this zone and, notably, neither held convincingly. For gold, the 50-day moving average has now become the line the market is watching. A decisive break lower from here could invite a deeper correction, while a recovery and close above it would signal that the broader uptrend remains intact. Silver’s inability to hold its own 50-day moving average is the more concerning signal for the precious metals complex, often reflecting broader risk-off sentiment rather than metal-specific demand.
It is worth noting that as this summary goes to press, gold has shown some resilience, recording a positive session late in the week. Whether that represents genuine buying interest at these levels or simply a technical bounce remains to be seen in the sessions ahead. Weekly technical indicators, however, continue to point to a strong buy signal, suggesting that longer-term positioning remains constructive even as short-term price action has been volatile.
RBA lifts rates: again
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent at its March meeting, a decision that was far from unanimous. Five board members voted in favour of the hike, with four voting to hold, a split that reflects genuine disagreement about whether the current environment warrants tighter policy or a more cautious wait-and-see approach.
The RBA’s reasoning was direct. Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and the conflict in the Middle East has added further upward pressure through sharply higher fuel costs. The board judged that the risk of inflation remaining above target for longer had become too significant to ignore. For the average Australian mortgage holder, the back-to-back hikes in 2026 alone translate to roughly $2,700 in additional annual repayments, effectively unwinding much of the relief delivered by the three rate cuts of 2025.
Major banks including ANZ and NAB are now forecasting a further hike in May, which would mark the first time the cash rate has risen at three consecutive meetings since early 2023. The RBA finds itself in a difficult position, acting on domestic inflation while a global supply-side shock, largely beyond its control, continues to feed price pressures through energy, freight and food costs.
Unemployment surprises: but not in a good way
Just days after the rate decision, the labour market added a complicating layer. Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent in February, with the number of unemployed people growing by 35,000. The result caught most of the market off-guard, coming in above the consensus forecast of 4.1 per cent.
The detail beneath the headline is mixed. Total employment grew by 49,000 people, and the participation rate lifted to 66.9 per cent, both signs of an engaged labour force. However, the composition of that employment shift is less encouraging. Full-time employment fell by 30,500 while part-time employment jumped by 79,400, suggesting that some of the new work being created is less stable than the headline number implies. For the RBA, a rising unemployment rate alongside still-elevated inflation is exactly the stagflationary combination it was hoping to avoid, higher prices and a softening labour market simultaneously, with limited policy tools to address both at once.
The Hormuz currency conflict
As covered earlier in the week, the Strait of Hormuz remains the central pressure point connecting energy markets, global trade and precious metals pricing. Iran’s reported consideration of restricting tanker passage to vessels settling in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars continues to reverberate through financial markets. Oil prices have surged back above US$100 per barrel since the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and that energy shock is now flowing through into inflation readings globally, including the PPI data that rattled markets mid-week.
The currency dimension of this story is the one to watch. A meaningful shift in how oil transacts, even partially, would begin to erode the structural demand for US dollars that has underpinned American financial dominance for more than fifty years. Gold, sitting outside any single currency system, would stand to benefit from that erosion. Whether that scenario plays out over months or years remains uncertain, but the direction of travel is becoming harder to dismiss.
Where does that leave bullion?
Gold’s near-term path is being pulled in two directions. Geopolitical risk, dollar uncertainty and a fracturing global order all argue for higher prices. Rising interest rates and a stronger US dollar in the short term create headwind. The 50-day moving average will continue to act as the market’s verdict on which force is winning. For long-term holders, the structural case has, if anything, strengthened through this week’s events.
Technical Indicators FOR GOLD – Weekly Projections
Daily technical indicators – SELL, leading into weekly projection of STRONG BUY
Weekly technical indicators chart.
| RSI(14) | Neutral |
| STOCH(9,6) | Neutral |
| STOCHRSI(14) | Oversold |
| MACD(12,26) | Buy |
| ADX(14) | Buy |
| Williams %R | Sell |
| CCI(14) | Neutral |
| ATR(14) | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Buy |
| ROC | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | Sell |