Gold and silver have extended their correction this week, with both metals now trading below their 50-day moving averages. What initially appeared to be a short-term consolidation is beginning to test broader trend support, with price now drifting toward longer-term weekly and monthly levels. Gold is holding relatively firm compared to silver, but the move lower signals a shift in short-term sentiment as traders reassess risk and liquidity conditions. The coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this is a pause within a larger uptrend or the beginning of a deeper pullback.
At the same time, the tone around the Iran conflict has shifted noticeably. Early expectations of a short, contained engagement are giving way to a more sobering outlook. US media and political commentary are now increasingly framing higher energy prices as a longer-term reality rather than a temporary spike. This change in narrative matters, as it signals that markets and policymakers alike are beginning to price in a prolonged disruption rather than a quick resolution.
That shift is being driven by developments on the ground. The conflict has expanded beyond military targets and is now increasingly focused on energy infrastructure. Damage to oil and gas facilities across the region is compounding an already fragile global supply chain, placing upward pressure on both oil and liquefied natural gas markets. With critical infrastructure under threat, the risk profile for global energy supply has increased materially in a very short period of time.
The question for Australia is whether it can step in to help offset some of this disruption. While Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG, the reality is far more complex. The majority of production is tied up in long-term export agreements with key Asian partners, limiting the ability to redirect supply quickly. Infrastructure constraints and shipping capacity also restrict how fast additional volumes can be brought online or rerouted. In the short term, Australia’s ability to materially influence global supply remains limited.
The broader implication is that energy costs are likely to remain elevated. Higher fuel and gas prices feed directly into production, transport and manufacturing costs across the global economy. This creates a renewed layer of inflationary pressure at a time when central banks have been attempting to bring inflation under control.
For bullion markets, this creates a familiar tension. On one hand, rising geopolitical risk and inflation support demand for safe-haven assets. On the other, elevated interest rates and tighter financial conditions can weigh on pricing. While gold and silver have softened in the short term, the underlying macro drivers that typically support bullion remain firmly in place.
Technical Indicators FOR GOLD – Weekly Projections
Daily technical indicators – STRONG SELL, leading into weekly projection of NEUTRAL
Weekly technical indicators chart.
| RSI(14) | Neutral |
| STOCH(9,6) | Neutral |
| STOCHRSI(14) | Oversold |
| MACD(12,26) | Buy |
| ADX(14) | Buy |
| Williams %R | Sell |
| CCI(14) | Sell |
| ATR(14) | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | Sell |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Sell |
| ROC | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | Sell |
Energy infrastructure sits at the centre of modern economic activity. Oil fields, gas processing plants, pipelines and export terminals form the backbone of global energy supply, and disruptions to any part of this network can have immediate pricing impacts. Unlike other commodities, energy cannot always be easily substituted or rerouted in the short term, making infrastructure damage particularly significant.
When key infrastructure is taken offline, supply tightens quickly while demand remains largely unchanged. This imbalance pushes prices higher, often rapidly. In regions like the Middle East, where a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas is produced and exported, infrastructure disruption can have global consequences within days.
For countries like Australia, which rely on both energy exports and imports, the impact can be twofold. Export revenues may benefit from higher prices, but domestic consumers and businesses still face rising fuel and energy costs. As global energy markets adjust to ongoing disruptions, the flow-on effects are felt across transport, food production and everyday living costs, reinforcing the role energy plays at the core of the global economy.